Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Donations for over $25000

I wanted to thank all the people (friends, family and strangers) who donated money to the relief effort and trusted me with distributing this money. In all, I have collected $5270. This includes $1000 personal donation, as well as four big anonymous donations of $1000, $662, $500 and $500. The rest of the $1400 ranges from $20 - $100.

Of this amount, I have distributed $2500 to needy families and relief supplies. The rest which equals $2770 (166,200 Rupees) is going to be donated to Sungi Development Foundation for work in Balakot and Battagram area. This is the organization that I spent 16 days working with and I believe them to be one of the best implementation partner in the disaster area. They are currently working with UN World Food program, Oxfam and Save the Children as well.

Another piece of good news is that EKTA & FOSA (Organizations for promoting peace on South Asia) had a fund raiser on November 19th, 2005. In that fund raiser they collected nearly $50,000 of which $20,000 (1.2 million rupees) and we are currently in negotiations to donate that to Sungi as well. I would include the $2770 in those programs. We are currently meeting with their Executive Director Ms. Samina Khan in looking for project specific proposal and monitoring efforts.

I will keep all of you updated on the progress of the distribution and its implementation. Further donations can be made at

SUNGI Development Foundation,
Dollar Account No. 412-2 Branch Code 0585
MCB
Star Branch, Abbottabad, Swift Code: MUCBPKKA

Pictures from Muzzafarabad


Pictures from Muzzafarabad.

Pictures from Balakot


Here are some pictures from Balakot. They are taken by either me or my friend Jawad Ali.

Sunday, November 20, 2005

New York Humanitarism

From a friend

There are 13 NYC paramedics that have been up in Kashmir for a couple weeks. They came with no backing, no organizational support, and absolutely no connection to Pakistan. They are New Yorkers. They work as EMTs, for St. Vincent's hospital. They were stationed near other relief orgs, but they were not satisfied, knowing that up the mountains, passed the broken roads and devastation, there were people that no one had reached. So they packed up the mules and headed up to Chinari, then to Kitai. They passed a sign 50 years old that forbade foreigners. They were the first to arrive. Their names are Steve, Ruben, Joe, Nick, Chris. When the 60 minutes guy was asking questions while they were trying to revive an 18 month old little boy nearly comatose from pneumonia, they said, "shut the fuck up and hold this fucking IV." (They're still New Yorkers.) I know that 13 Americans doesn't begin to make up for America, but I wanted to let you know...there are good people from here, even in the belly of the beast, the city that cried foul about 911, choking on their own fear and racism, that are now trying with what they have in Kashmir, amongst angels and/or jehadis.

Debunking the myths

At this time, the relief efforts are going well. The World community and the UN have promised 5.9 billion dollars in aids, of which 4 billion is in soft loans. One can criticize the government till the cows come home, but no one in Pakistan has enough PR to gather such a large amount of money. I think Musharaf has done a tremendous job. Even as winter rolls in, the relief efforts are working their way to the mountaintops and Inshallah if the government buffoonery does not F it up, we should have a sustainable rehabilitation effort.

The October 8th earthquake was the result of seismic activity that has been identified by geologists for years. It is the result of tectonic plates that never quite stabilized since the time when the Indian subcontinent crashed into the Asian landmass, creating the Himalayas and Karakorum mountain ranges as a result. The actual earthquake that stuck at 8:52 Pakistan time lasted for 33 seconds was the result of seismic activity 2km deep. The epicenter north of Muzzafarabad has created a diagonal death of destruction starting from Batagram in the Northwest and then continuing southeast to Balakot, Muzzafarabad and Bagh. The after shocks that are still happening are a natural consequence and vouch for the fact that this is indeed an earthquake not a secret nuclear explosion by India/Pakistan/US (another conspiracy myth).

However, aside from the basic needs of food, shelter, health and education, there is a psychological need that has to be addressed. Currently, that is being addressed solely in the spiritual aspects by religious sermons. This has spawned myths about why and how did the earthquake struck this region. Some of those are,
1. We are sinners so Allah should us His might
2. Kashmir was out of control, alcohol drinking during Ramzan, prostitution in Neelam and Sangham hotel in Muzzafarabad
3. Usury has made the people weak in their faith.

Logically, these need little explanation. From my experience in Balakot and in Muzaafarabad region, I can only say that these people are deeply religious. All women observe purdah, Allah is often invoked, most perform prayers, and as for alcohol and prostitution surely Allah would have struck down Karachi, Lahore and Dubai way before Muzzafarabad. However, these have resulted in a self-hatred and most of these people have turned their anger and frustration towards the government and their own community. This is unfortunate to say the least. The real reasons for the enormous damage that has been caused by this earthquake are dutifully ignored by the nation and the media.

The facts that need investigation and journalistic lynch mobbing are in my opinion,

1. No liable civil defense plan for the nation. Our elders mention the 1965 war, as the last time there was a civil emergency plan, but now nothing like that exists. It is embarrassing to see relief workers from all over the world roughing it up, while our educated elites are scared to send their ladlas to the quake zone. One important part of rebuilding is community-based organizations that come into action in times of disaster.

2. Non-existent building codes and corrupt government inspectors that have resulted in every government funded building becoming a pile of rubble. Most of these were primary and secondary schools or hospitals. All the contractors and building engineers should be tried and be made an example of. This is where the anger should be directed.

3. Landslides have wiped out entire villages due to severe deforestation. This is more prevalent in the Balakot area then in Kashmir. An environment policy that promotes trees needs to be practices. Most locals understand that trees hold the soil together and somewhat decrease the destruction through landslides.

In the end, it is important for the people to realize that an earthquake is a natural phenomenon that happens all over the world. I have cited examples of quakes in Gujrat , Bam and Turkey. This has nothing to do with our sins. Some have cited illogical justifications for the earthquake. At least these spread a positive vibe. One of them is that earthquakes are nature’s way of cleaning the atmosphere by restoring the air quality and absorbing our toxics. Lastly, one grand gentleman dreamed that the earthquake has unearthed mines of emeralds and diamonds thus enriching the nation with billion dollars worth of precious gems. In some way it my hope too that the diamonds of his dreams are a metaphor and the nation has truly unearthed within itself a sense of humanitarianism.

Sunday, November 13, 2005

Mission Accomplished


I have done village assessments in Upper Gurlot, Gunol, Kawai, Paras, Kot Bala, Sarwai and Bagah. However, today I can say Mission Accomplished, even though I have not made it to Kashmir yet.

The first two days were an introduction, writing out Need assessment coupons/chits to the needy. Next day we drove to Gunol, and I climbed 2000 ft to a village named Kalas in UC Kawai. I saw one tent for 22 households. Next we surveyed Paras, Kot Bala and Ghari Habib Ullah.

Yesterday, I went to Talhata Union Council. The emergence of a Sungi volunteer with an orange armband and Old Navy clothing draws people like flies. Their needs had been met, but we were surrounded by people who were hell bent on getting more tents. They tested my patience and I tore up two slips in anger. I am not blaming the local population, this is a natural effect in disasters, but being surrounded by angry villagers can lead even the best Samaritans astray.

However, as is usually the case the cunning political types end up escorting us. In Talhatta village my escort was particularly annoying. However, by now I had picked up on a few trick of the trades, which inspired some humiliation. A few thanked Allah and refused help. It is part of Sungi’s mission to locate local activist and grass root organizations. Most of the activists are mustachioed politicos trying to get their voting area assessed upfront. These we call de-activists. The preference is for community service members, teachers being foremost among them (someone should tell this to the Governator). One local teacher kept asking me to go to Sarwai in a Jeep. ‘The people are really needy in that area, no organization has reached them yet.’

So I took a treacherous ride in to the town of Sarwai squeezed next to Muhammed Ayub, the descendent of the local Pir, as Sarwai is the seat of a small shrine of Sien Muhammed. The village is at 5000 feet and has been decimated by landslides. Out of the 40 households I surveyed, there were 52 deaths. The population badgered, implored, threatened and begged me to help them. I wrote the necessary slips while my local guides provided protection and harmony. I only saw six tents in the entire village area that I surveyed, as I could not get to Upper Sarwai villages. On the way back, the Jeep ride turned ugly and I experienced real fear. It was at a hairpin turn, on the edge of a 2000 ft ravine, and the 1960's vintage purple Jeep CJ-7 could not turn so the driver had to reverse to the edge of the road to make the turn. At one moment, holding the handbrake with his hand and engaging the clutch with his feet in a Jeep occupied by eight men, he dropped the clutch and the car slid right to the edge, before he revved it up. During that time, instead of letting the newly married man do his job, the passengers started berating him for his bad driving. I think it was a Herculean effort to drive up that moluntain face for 1200 rs, $20.

Next day we left early in the morning to reach the furthest most villages in Talhatta union council. It has been 35 days since the 33-second earthquake hit and no one had climbed to these villages, as even the gravel Jeep road had been lost to flooding and landslides. Our jeep dropped us off on a dry riverbed filled with gravel, after the town of Sughdir. The area was known as Panch Chaki/five mills. However, now all we saw was a river of gravel, which was being loaded into tractors for construction. There is scree and gravel from the landslides. It is not an easy route and the temperature was hot. We crossed multiple frigid streams and climbed 3200 feet to the first hamlet and then split up. My friend Jawad went to Laspattiyan and I went to Bagah Sharif to conduct a house-to-house survey, and hand out relief slips. There were 45 households remaining in Laspattiyan (Elev 6247) and nearly 100 in Bagah Sahrif (Elev 6100), home to the shrine of Baba Faiz Mohammed. Both are the farthest village in the UC Talhata near the border of Azad Kashmir.

I nearly died from the climb. All the cigarettes that I have smoked were laughing inside my lungs. Now Jawad is a non-smoker, an athelte and a good squash player. My weekly exercise is chatting with my Sifu about Kung-Fu movies, so this was extremely hard. I heaved up with considerable efforts, as did my guide, he had being living in Saudi Arabia for the last eight year. There is a 3,000 ft assent from the Panch Chaki base and experienced trekking guides would describe the climb as extraneous. However, once I saw the beaming smiles of the old man who greeted us, it was worth it. As they say in Urdu, Mera bees kilo khoon bar gaya/I increased my blood by 20 kilos. The first group of houses belonged to carpenters who worked in Patel Para furniture market in Karachi. They had tied a red flag at the summit for passing helicopters. They showed me burst sacks of flour that had been dropped. No one had reached these hamlets before us, and they greeted us warmly, and served us tea and an egg dish. One of them had lost two children, 6 and 9, and his wife when his house collapsed. He had a serene smile, which conveyed much anguish. Entire mountain sections have been buried under landslides. While writing one slip sitting on top rubble, I asked for the owner’s father's name. He raised his hand in pryaers, and said, 'Lets pray, he is still buried under the rubble'.

I wrote 100 slip today, my first century and nearly all with tents as I saw only one tent in the entire village. Out of 200 households in Bagah, there have been 112 deaths, mostly children. The extent of damage is hard to capture with words, videos and pictures. Both jawad and I were determined to finish our assessments because nobody would be coming here for a while. However, in our zeal we forgot the time and it was nearly dusk when we started our descend. If the climb was risky, the descend was insane. Thank God for the Petra headlamps, which my brother jokingly suggested would be very useful to start the electric generator when the power goes out in my house. The sliding gravel, ravines and cooler temperatures made it risky. When we reached the Panch Chaki, our Sungi Jeep had left and we had to hitch rides on one of the tractors piled with gravel. However, both me and Jawad felt that we can go back, knowing fully well that we have done something.

Need Assessments



My primary function here, other then the fact that both me and Jawad are purveyors of fine clothing and hi tech equipment, is need assessment of the rural population. The process is somewhat inefficient but after working for six days in the field, I can say it works.

Sungi sends assessment teams to far off villages to assess the damage to their residence and then issue coupons/chits to head of households, after identifying their residence in that particular village and union council through the National ID card. The chits entitle them to collect NFI (Non food items) dependent on the program we are working on with our partner organizations like Oxfam and Save the Children. This could include tent, blankets, plastic sheets, stove, nails, pans, etc. We record demographical information by household, which is defined by a choola/stove. A stove represents separate family units living under the same household. This includes male, female, children, widows and orphans. Humanitarian organizations like Sungi stress the reporting of widows and orphans for preferential treatment, which prompted one angry villager to ask me, ‘Randowa ka ki hona hai, meri do zauja zalzalay mein faut ho gein/What about male widowers, two of my wives died in the earthquake’

In Balakot Sungi was working in the Angarai, Mandary, Talhata and Kawai Union councils, while in Muzzafarabad we were handling Langarpura, Hattian Dupata and Ghori. The Government of Pakistan has inherited the hierarchical categorization of rural population units from the British and the Mughals. The current set up is set as follows

Province - NWFP
Division - Hazara
District - Mansehra
Tehsil - Balakot
Union Council - Kawai
Revenue Village - Paras
Hamlet - Tangsan

District Mansehra has three Tehsils, Balakot being one of them. Each tehsil could have 10-15 Union councils each comprised of 40-80 revenue villages. Howeve there are some interesting issues to consider here.

The first is the issue of the Patwar circle, which was set up under the Mughals to collect village revenues. This was continued under the British and now http://Risepak.com, the premier internet site for relief information does its population demographics by the Patwari circle. The 1998 mostly population census conducted by the Government of Pakistan (GOP) also has followed this useless hierarchy. The reality on the ground is completely different. The hundreds of folks that I have interviewed have no idea what a patwari circle is, but they know their Union councils, which are head by the Nazims, while the revenue villages elect a councilor.

Secondly, the revenue villages (gaon) are usually the dakhli Mohalla, meaning the first and the easiest to reach hamlet (mohalla). Only recently has the mohall demographic have been recorded mostly through field workers of NGO like Sungi. This has resulted in a big gap in census data.

Lastly, the non-existent of any sort of provincial government in Azad Jammu Kashmir is disturbing. Although most of the work is done at the Union Council level, the non-representation of AJK people in our parliament is confusing to me. I am not familiar with the politics of the issue, but even a lethargic and corrupt government carries some weight in national affairs. However, from a global perspective, it is a Kashmir earthquake and they have received most of the media’s attention.

Saturday, November 12, 2005

Camp Life



Today is a big day for us. The Sangi engineer has finally installed a Latrine. There is no running water, but it is nice to be enclosed in a sheeted area. However, the Army folks are still using the Kunhar River as a natural toilet. Thank God we are upstream to them.

The camp is comprised of eight tents. They are weatherproof, so even when it rains, we are pretty much dry. However, it is getting cold now. We are living like the refugees, in tents, using nice woolen blankets made in Spain. Now we have an intrepid cook named Yonus, who was using my REI quick-drying towel as a cooking rag. Not his fault – I left it hanging to dry – and it blew away and he thought it was a very useful rag. Last night he made us rice and lobia (red beans). Needless to say, the seven people in my tent were very audible. I am sleeping with a volunteer from Sargodha, a teacher named Ihtisham from Abottabad, who was interviewed by the BBC as the first man to climb up the Makra (Spider) mountain (because it sits between Balakot and Kashmir like a spider), Gert from Belgium who reminds me of a kind hearted bumbling Knight (I am reading Crusades through the Arab eyes by Amin Malouf). He is 6 feet 5 inches tall with wild curly blonde hair and has cut his hand twice in food distribution efforts. In addition, we have Tim and Kathleen from Melbourne, Australia, my friend Jawad from San Francisco, Tony from Oxford, England and Sakuma from Tokyo, Japan.

Sangi is a sister organization to OXFAM and they are a fine lot. The tents and blankets we are giving out are good quality and worth thousands of dollars. Still, the UN has not allowed food distribution as of yet, but Jawad is on their case, taking minutes and coming up with list of action items, I think they are a bit confused as we keep throwing the ball back in the court.

Our camp is next to the UAE field hospital. They are from Dubai and have Hummers, a 50 patient waiting room with plastic chair, a massive generator and a water filtration plant. There are lines of agencies here, Save the children, Oxfam, Relief International, IRC, Hope, red Cross/Red Crescent, Islamic relief are the international ones. Sangi, Edhi foundation, Zindagi Trust (Christians/Minorities of Pakistan), President's fund and other notable NGO's. The Pakistan political parties are also present, like Jamat-Islami, MQM (Ayaz Amir no lover of the Karachi based political party has said that even he is now saying Jiya Altaf for the first and last time), Al Khidmat, Al Rasheed Trust, Al-Rehmat, people's Party, etc. Some of these are mainstream religious parties, but everyone knows of the Kashmir Freedom Fighter organizations like Harkat-ul-Mujaheedin, Al-Ansar, Lashkar-e-Tayabba, Jesh Muhammed. They have won the people's hearts, along with the Pakistan Army, and the German, Estonian, Japanese, Chinese, Iranian, Canadian Doctors who have worked their hearts out.

What is notably missing, blaringly so is the complete absence of Pakistan government. They come in helicopters and give speeches and empty promises. Most of the schools and hospitals that have fallen down are made by corrupt contractors who should be hanged. The provincial government who certified these buildings are still in power and so far the media in Pakistan has left them alone, concentrating on stupid interview of refugees.

Even more evident is the absence of USAID. I have not seen any US government (or US corporations) in Balakot. However, I ran into an American volunteer from California and we see the Chinooks, flying overhead and the vegetable oil and tarps say USAID. The savvy locals ask me about USAID and recognize Germans and Canadians (who take extra measures to say where they are from) I hope we can avail this chance to bridge the ever widening gap between the US and the people of Pakistan.

Friday, November 11, 2005

Balakot updates



Today is our day off, so I went for a bath after five days at the local barber and then for Friday prayers. We crossed a suspended rickety bridge over the river Kunhar and climbed up to the mosque, which was damaged, but not rubble. Even the locals know that it is not a miracle, because it was not constructed by corrupt contractors. The Maulvi was delightful old man and gave examples of Germans who gave him with a tent. He replied with ‘one-two-three’, the only words he knew in English when they said shukriya or thanks. He said that foreigners who are helping are better then locals who hoard supplies. It was refreshing to hear a sermon that did not brand foreigners as heathens. After that I did more assessments in Kot Balah, met a local Pir, and then came down to base camp for distribution where I cheated the system and gave blankets to a widow with two shivering babies. I feel good inside and outside and a bit cheeky. met a local Sheikh and came down to give a tent to a widow with two shivering babies. I feel good inside and outside.

I have been doing Assessments for Sungi. We leave early in the morning and return in the evening. We are working in Hazara division, district Mansera, union council Kawai (not the one in Hawaii). We are covering three major villages, Kawai, Paras and Boonja. So far Boonja is inaccessible as it started raining yesterday. The newly constructed highway from Mansehra to Kaghan is broken up with crevices and landslides; most resulting from deforestation, which has laid the mountains bare, and the result is massive loss of life and livelihood.

Yesterday, a relief worker from a partner organization Thardeep stepped out of our Jeep as he was fearful for his life. These mountain roads are single lane, and the Army has barely cleared a path on top of the landslides. With the rain and the incoming traffic of goats, sheep, ox, Zoe (Balistani cattle) Jeeps filled with refugees and Army vehicles, we occasionally have to back-up alongside a ravine 3000 ft in height and then even the bravest among us panics. Our driver, Lala Manzoor, has lost his house, fractured his leg, lost family members and has a daughter whose elbow is completely fractured. He thinks driving up this road is close to mocking death.

However we made it to Paras, where we found three small base camps, a religious organization, University of Lahore and Muslim medics from Canada. They have limited supplies, and it only makes sense for the population to come down. However, the people are waiting for their crops to be cut (potatoes, corn, peas) also they are afraid to leave their belongings even when they are buried in the rumble. There is also some hesitation because they don’t want to live in Camps. However, the biggest reason is that there are no vehicles that can transport them down, as the incoming winter and bad roads will isolate them for three months. The fares have (rightly so) gone up by 500%, as the roads are dangerous.

The devastation in big cities like Balakot, Ghari Habib Ullah and Muzaffarabad is devastating. However, the worse is in schools and hospitals. I visited Babar Colony in Ghari Habib Ullah, where six hundred schoolgirls perished. We are supposed to start assessment on the city next day. Most of the schools and Hospitals have collapsed, due to faulty construction. The contractors and the government engineers should be lynched in my opinion. In Balakot, a local men showed me the beams in the school where 400 children perished, 'In our house beams collapsed in one piece here the beam is like choora(crackers)'. The Heroes of this are the Jehadi organizations like Harkat ul Mujahadeen, who are still operational in Kashmir. One observer remarked that he himself did not have the guts to rescue his niece from the rumble, but these Jehadis went without fear.

However, the most frustrating thing is the inefficiency of the NGO's and specifically the White Range Rover driven UN relief officers. Our sad little camp is in front of the UN food programs (WFP) massive white warehouse tents. For the last 5 days, we have gone to assess villagers to give them slips for tents, blankets and basic food ration. It is an inefficient operations to start with, we go up mountains to give just give this piece of paper, which is a lifeline, and then they come down from mountains, a full day hike to pick up winterized family tents, 75 kg of rations and blankets and stuff to haul back. Still, that’s the way it is done, so we do it. However, in the last three days, we have distributed tons of supplies, with the help of volunteers from Japan, Belgium and Australia. However, we have not distributed a single pound of food ration because the UN will NOT give us the go. They ask us ridiculous questions, sitting in their air-conditioned vehicles and as thousands stand outside, they ask us for agreements and guarantees. I have personally given assessments of the Union Councils, there are better and professional NGO workers who have attested, and admittedly there is some inefficiency in our system, but nothing is worth watching women and children freezing in the rain, as the UN officer’s lord over their domain. I have been inside their warehouse, it is packed, and they give out to foreign agencies like International Relief. However, while we are trusted with the distribution of woolen blankets and winterized tents (worth thousands of dollars), it is hard to tell people that no flour and sugar is available, as the UN does not TRUST us. If there is one thing I have learned, the UN treats locals just like the British Sahibs, even though not a single dollar or pound of food is their own.

On a positive note, I am working on setting up some tent schools near Balakot. They need 100 person tents, school supplies, uniforms, sanitation and books. I would like to at least set up one school with the money that has been donated to me. Three tents have already been donated by the government, however the expenses for running them come to around $5000. Hopefully, I can set up the seed for some of them in Balakot.

I had an interview with KPFA
http://www.kpfa.org/archives/index.php?arch=11090&page=1&type=

Our organization is
http://sungi.org

Monday, November 07, 2005

Balakot - epicenter



There was a 6.0 aftershock today. The same day I took a bus to Abottabad on the Karakorum highway to the Silk Road and reported to the organization Sungi, affiliated with OXFAM and Save the Children. They sent me to Balakot, which used to be a city, but now not a single house is left standing, bridges are broken or shifted and buildings demolished. The city had around 50,000 people, and the underlying Tehsil (county) had nearly 50,000 more, not accounting for the Nomadic population. It is as if a colossal bulldozer has decided to wipe out the entire village and leave concrete rubble behind. Buried under are rotting bodies and above there is unclean water, and tons of rubbish, refuse and unused relief supplies. Unfortunately, Balakot can't be build from zero, it will have to start from -10.

The town Balakot is a little way up the Kunhar River. Balakot was the scene of a battle in the continuing struggle between the Sikhs and the Muslim tribesmen in the early 19th century. The Sikhs, killed the Muslim leader Syed Ahmed Shah, here in 1831. His tomb is the green-tiled monument bear the Kunhar River. The tomb of Syed Ahmed Shah is damaged extensivly but the graves have survived.

It is a life changing experience. We are strictly forbidden to give any sort of direct aid. Our main job is to assess their needs. It is commonly believed that they will not survive snowfall, and all of this is temporary. We go to villages and write down what they need, give out paper slips. Later they send in their able-bodied to retrieve food or wait hoping we will deliver to them. We carry only limited supplies to villages. It is heart-breaking to see women and children beg for blankets and foods, when you have only slips of paper to give them.

We access their needs for 1 tent, 3 x blankets, 2 x chatai and food (67.5 kg rice, 7.5 kg lentils, 4.5 kg oil). The food supply is for a month only for a family of three, while the average family size here is seven.

Other then Balakot, there are other effected areas as well. The local estimate for the deaths is well over a 100,000. The population census is ongoing, and the missing people and the Pakistan Army jawans who have been killed are not counted because of LOC sensitivity issues. However, the death toll will be much higher once the winter sets in . . . The hardest thing is knowing that what you do is nothing but a drop in the ocean.

Thursday, November 03, 2005

Gay marriage in Pakistan caused quake!

The reason for the devastating earthquake are being considered quite seriously by our intelligentsia. One story is that if an Afghan refugee named Liaqat Ali, who married a 16 year old boy in Tirah Valley. The boy Markeen is now his male bride and for this honor he paid the boy’s parent which he paid 40,000 Rs. Needless to say this action prompted death threats.

This is reputed to be the main reason for the wrath of God in Kashmir by the conservatives.

The current urban legend that holds most sway is that of a baby born in Karachi with a flowing beard. He (I am assuming it was a He) predicted a devastating earthquake would hit Karachi on October 28th. Then he died. When that day passed, the date was adjusted to November 28th.